West Bengal 2026 Elections: Can Mamata Banerjee Lose Power?

 

West Bengal 2026 Elections: Can Mamata Banerjee Lose Power?

In 2021, West Bengal's state elections were very close between Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC) party and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). TMC won big with 213 seats out of 294 total, getting about 48% of votes. But BJP wasn't far behind—they won 77 seats with 38% of votes, their best performance ever in West Bengal. The gap was only 10% in votes, showing the state was almost evenly divided. Now, four years later, a lot has changed that could completely flip the results in 2026.

Corruption Scandals Are Hurting Mamata

People are angry about constant corruption scandals in Mamata's government. Her close ally Partha Chatterjee, who was the education minister, got arrested in July 2022. He was involved in a huge scam where people paid bribes to get teaching jobs. Police found over Rs 50 crore in cash and Rs 4.5 crore worth of gold hidden at his associate's homes. The Supreme Court cancelled 26,000 fake teacher appointments in 2024, calling it "massive fraud." Chatterjee got bail in November 2025 after three years in jail, but people haven't forgotten.

Then there's the Sandeshkhali case from 2024. A TMC leader named Sheikh Shahjahan was accused of stealing land and sexually abusing women for years. He was arrested in February 2024 after his supporters attacked investigation officials. The CBI is still arresting his helpers—they caught one named Abul Hossen Molla in November 2025. Dozens of women shared their terrible stories, leading to protests across the state.

There's also the heartbreaking RG Kar hospital case from August 2024. A young female doctor was raped and murdered inside Kolkata's main hospital. The accused got life in prison, but the CBI found that hospital officials and police tried to cover it up. They arrested the hospital head Sandip Ghosh and a police officer for destroying evidence and delaying the complaint. Protests shut down hospitals across India for weeks, and the Supreme Court criticized the "disturbing" failures.

Other ministers have also faced charges for ration scams, human trafficking, and rape. People see all this as proof that Mamata's government is deeply corrupt. Surveys show that over 60% of voters in cities say corruption is their biggest concern.

Hindu Voters Feeling Ignored

Many Hindu voters (who make up about 70% of Bengal's population) feel that Mamata's policies favor minority communities too much. They're upset about things like restrictions on Hindu festivals and what they see as unfair treatment by police. BJP has been working hard on this message. In the 2024 national elections, BJP kept a strong 38.7% vote share, mainly because Hindu voters united behind them. They think if they can get just 5-8% more Hindu votes in 2026, they can win. RSS and VHP (Hindu organizations) are going door-to-door to convince people. Early predictions say BJP could win 120-140 seats if this continues.

Voter List Cleanup Hurting TMC

Mamata used to rely on votes from people of Bangladeshi origin, including some who came illegally. But the Election Commission started a special intensive review of voter lists (SIR) in 2025 and removed lakhs (hundreds of thousands) of fake or illegal voter names. Reports say over 10 lakh suspicious entries were deleted just in border areas, and hundreds of people have been sent back across the border. The new CAA law (passed in 2024) protects non-Muslim refugees but hurts TMC's vote bank. BJP's slogan "Delete, Detain, Deport" is becoming popular.

What Could Happen in 2026?

West Bengal is tired of the problems—unemployment is at 6.6%, prices are high, and people don't feel safe. 2026 could be when voters punish TMC. Experts say it's very close: TMC's welfare programs like Lakshmir Bhandar (cash for women) keep about 40% of voters loyal, but the scandals and religious polarization might give BJP the win. If Hindu voters unite more than ever before and immigrant votes disappear, TMC could actually lose. Mamata built her power on emotional appeals and welfare programs, but voters might finally say "enough is enough."

The lesson? People's trust disappears quickly when leaders are involved in scandals.