The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secures a resounding victory in Bihar, the opposition alliance suffers a heavy setback.


The NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) (JDU), is projected to win over 200 seats out of the 243-seat assembly.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan — headed by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Indian National Congress (INC) — fails to break through, managing far fewer seats than expected.


Why the NDA won:

A broadening of the caste coalition: The NDA succeeded in winning support from the extremely-backward classes (EBCs), Dalits, women and youth — not just traditional upper-caste or core supporters.


Strong appeal to women voters and welfare-oriented schemes: Women’s turnout rose and tilt towards NDA appears to have been decisive.


Opposition’s failure to expand beyond its traditional vote banks: The Mahagathbandhan could not sufficiently extend its appeal beyond the Muslim-Yadav (MY) axis.


Key losers:

The Congress registered one of its worst performances in the state’s recent political history.


Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), a new contender backed by strategist Prashant Kishor, failed to make the expected impact.


Implications:

The victory strengthens the national-political standing of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the NDA ahead of other key state polls and the next general election.


For Bihar, it signals continuity of the current leadership and suggests the state’s political dynamics are shifting away from old formulas of caste arithmetic.


The opposition will need to rethink strategy, leadership and alliances if it is to remain relevant in Bihar.

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