India’s Russian Oil Imports Set for Sharp Fall as New U.S. Sanctions Take Hold

India’s purchases of cheap Russian crude, a key part of its oil strategy since 2022, are now set for a steep drop. Although November imports stayed steady at around 1.8–1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), industry data shows that December and January supplies may fall to just 400,000 bpd. This would be a more than 75% decline from recent levels.

The sudden shift comes after new U.S. sanctions and tariffs announced by President Donald Trump. These measures, effective November 21, target major Russian energy companies Rosneft and Lukoil, which earlier supplied almost 60% of the Russian crude India received. The U.S. also imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports, partly as punishment for India’s continued buying of Russian oil. Trump has claimed that India has “largely stopped” these purchases and hinted that tariff relief may follow if volumes remain low.

Because of the sanctions, India’s biggest refiners—who together buy about 65% of the Russian oil coming into the country—have stopped placing orders for December.

Reliance Industries, the largest private refiner, halted Russian oil imports for its Jamnagar plant and cut Rosneft deals by 13% in October. It has sharply increased purchases from Saudi Arabia (up 87%) and Iraq (up 31%).

State-run refiners like Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum, and Mangalore Refinery have also suspended orders, citing legal risks and unclear shipments involving “shadow” tankers. For these companies, Russian oil volumes are now at their lowest level since May 2022.

This turn in policy follows a gradual cooling-off trend. Between April and September, India’s Russian crude imports fell 8.4% year-on-year to 1.75 million bpd as discounts shrank and Middle East supplies increased to 45% of India’s total crude mix. Russia’s share slipped from 40% to 36%, while imports from the U.S. rose 7% to 295,000 bpd—though technical limits prevent much higher intake from American producers.

India bought $52.7 billion worth of Russian crude in 2024, but the direction for 2025 now points toward a reversal.

Economically, the sanctions have pushed up global oil prices. Brent crude rose around 8%, which could add $6–7 billion to India’s annual import costs. Refiners also face weaker profit margins as they lose access to heavy Russian discounts—currently about $4 per barrel below Brent, the widest gap in a year. At the same time, they worry about secondary sanctions for dealing directly with Moscow. From January 2026, new EU rules may also threaten India’s refined fuel exports to Europe if they are made from Russian-origin oil.

Strategically, India is trying to balance energy security with geopolitical pressure. Complete stoppage of Russian oil is unlikely, and analysts expect some shipments to continue through intermediaries. But the government is now leaning more on OPEC suppliers, whose share in India’s crude basket has risen to 49%.

As New Delhi holds talks with Washington, the situation highlights how fragile India’s energy planning can become when global sanctions and politics collide.