Damaging cluster of UK winter storms driven by swirling polar vortex miles above Earth


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Clusters of powerful winter storms affecting the UK have been linked to an intense polar vortex located high above the Arctic, according to recent research from the University of Leeds and the Met Office. This study highlights how stronger winds in the Arctic stratosphere can increase the likelihood of storm clusters, such as those seen in February 2022 with storms Dudley, Eunice, and Franklin hitting within a week.

The findings, published in Communications Earth and Environment, indicate that a strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can make severe winter storms up to three times more likely. The researchers suggest that recognizing the state of the SPV could provide forecasters with early warnings about potential storm clusters, which is increasingly important in light of climate change and its impact on storm intensity.

Dr. Ryan Williams, the lead author, emphasized the need for better understanding of factors influencing the North Atlantic storm track, noting that forecasting models could potentially predict these conditions weeks in advance. The research also revealed that during February 2022, the strong SPV increased the chance of experiencing multiple storms in a single week by approximately 80% compared to normal conditions.


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